IT'S NEVER TO EARLY TO REACH FOR A HANDCUFF RB
It's only May, and yet I have just completed my first fantasy football draft for 2005 season. I'm still suffering that peculiar brain-sizzle unique to fourteen preliminary rounds.
I have to thank my buddies John Hansen and Adam Caplan of Sirius NFL radio for offering me a birth in the FantasyGuru.com Experts League. We'll finish the last four rounds closer to kickoff, so it's an early peak at how the big boys are drafting. The league is full of experts from pretty much every national fantasy source -- and that can only mean one thing: RB's and nothin' but RB's for two rounds plus.
Being the contrarian sort, I'll talk you through my lineup and the logic, or lack of it, along the way.
ROUND 1, PICK 5
PEYTON MANNING, QB
Ladanian, Priest, the Edge, and Alexander are already gone. So it's basically Mcgahee or Manning for moi -- the Clinton Portis's of the world are for someone else to enjoy.
I think Willis is going to be a real stud, but my experience tells me that 40% of these RB picks will disappoint in some way -- injuries, missed games, subpar years. Had Alexander slipped, I might have switched up, but he didn't, and having learned the hard lesson of drafting Deuce Mcallister in round one last year, I can't pass up the passing king.
Manning always plays, and even at a discounted 4 points per pass TD, 49 of 'em is a lot of fantasy candy. Plus, with Culpepper now Moss-less, there is a country mile between Manning and any other starter at the position, including Mcnabb - there, I said it.
So I zigged when they zagged. Needless to say, the rest of the next two rounds will be RB-crazy, and I'm at risk of missing out on difference-makers. Regardless, I gotta pick three RB's in row now, or I'll end up starting Barry Word.
ROUND 2, PICK 8
LAMONT JORDAN, RB, RAIDERS
I was really hoping to have a little more to pick from here, but it was Lamont all the way after the RB-vultures had pounced on the kind of players I prayed might slide -- Julius Jones, Thomas Jones, hell, any Jones.
Still, I think with all the hype about Collins to Moss/Porter, any hep person knows the player who really thrives in a Norv Turner offense is the workhorse back -- and I got him.
Now I can't fight that queasy feeling that I'm looking at a... gulp... rookie in round three...
ROUND 3, PICK 5
CEDRICK BENSON, RB, BEARS
...and my Spidey-sense didn't let me down. In a mini-rookie run, Ronne Brown was gone, and I had a choice between Benson and Cadillac. Tough call, but I think the Bears will be a lot more competitive this year via tough D and a commitment to tough inside running yards. Benson could be Charlie TD Plunge -- let's hope so!
ROUND 4, PICK 8
DE'SHAUN FOSTER, RB, PANTHERS
I'd love to go WR here, but if I do I am totally screwed on RB depth in a start 2 with a swing-man league. I had a hunch Foster would fall to me, and he did. If not, the halfbacks are so picked over I'm looking at the Lee Suggs of the world. I usually avoid guys with injury histories, but with Stephen Davis in limbo I can't pass up the workhorse in John Fox's offense. Foster can be electric, and should he go down, I'll hopefully get a chance to work the waiver wire to a fair-thee-well. It's easy to forget players like Mcgahee, Kevin Jones, and Julius Jones were all there to be had last year.
Now I've got to play some serious catch-up ball with my WR's.
ROUND 5, PICK 5
BRANDON STOKLEY, WR, COLTS
Saw many a player I had my eye on go just in front of this pick -- Michael Clayton and Steve Smith in particular. So... I reached. Stokley put up huge numbers for a #3 last year, and I'll get to double-dip when he hooks up with Manning. Still, got a feeling I could have been a little smarter here.
ROUND 6, PICK 8
MUSHIN MUHAMMAD, WR, BEARS
Getting that sick feeling in the pit of my stomach as players I've targeted are picked off right before I'm at bat. Another roll of the dice -- I know he won't match his Panther numbers in Chi-town, but he's a solid #1, and I'm looking at a lot of second and third WR's at this point. This is as much a gamble on Rex Grossman staying healthy as it is on MM translating to a new system. Yikes...
ROUND 7, PICK 5
PLAXICO BURRESS, WR, GIANTS
Again, looking for #1 recievers, and once again I'm gambling -- in this case, that he can play like a true #1 and build some chemistry with the other Manning. Plus, the Giants have a cream puff schedule this year. Still... yikes.
ROUND 8, PICK 8
EDDIE KENNISON, WR. CHIEFS
Solid pro, streaky, but delivers better numbers at the end of the year than people tend to remember. Just as important, he's the best reciever on a potent offense. I think this is good value in round eight (...he said hopefully.) Did I mention we have to start 3 WR's? Gulp...
ROUND 9, PICK 5
BUFFALO BILLS D/SPECIAL TEAMS.
Now I'm really zigging when they zag! I chose the Bills over the Ravens! Shock and awe! Being a Bills fan, I am particularly judicious not to go homer when it comes time to draft a squad, but anyone who had this D/ST combo last year knows they were the #1 point getter, a difference-maker, and lightning-fast Roscoe Parrish can only make Bobby April's kick return teams more dangerous. Skeee-wurt! I'm back in love with myself.
ROUND 10, PICK 8
MIKE WILLIAMS, WR, LIONS
Now we're into the speculative rounds -- it's time to roll the dice on youngster's with an upside. This is a big-bodied, physical kid who could become a major redzone safety valve. I also think he's a lot more ready to play pro ball than, say, Troy Williamson is. Plus, until Charles Rogers can make it past game one in the regular season, I have no reason not to think that at some point this year Williams will be the number 2 opposite Roy Williams. The Lion offense is on the verge of big things, and the Garcia pick-up eases my Joey jitters.
ROUND 11, PICK 5
CHESTER TAYLOR, RB, RAVENS
With things being pretty picked-over, I move on to grabbing handcuff back ups who could put up huge numbers should problems arise in starter-ville. The Ravens think enough of this kid to match a big free agent offer he got from Cleveland. Don't get me wrong -- Jamal Lewis is the man, I would have picked him in a heartbeat -- but he's been incarcerated for the entire off-season. Anything could go down. Then consider this -- he's young, but how many times have we seen the wheels come off a back in the aftermath of a 2,000 yard campaign? I don't like to dwell on negatives, but this is a tough league and frankly, it's come to that...
ROUND 12, PICK 8
JEB PUTZIER, TE, BRONCOS
And speaking of players who saw their team match a big contract offer, here's a guy the Jets threw money at, and Denver matched it. It speaks of big plans for Jeb, and we all know what TE's are capable of in Shannahan's system. I think he's poised to move up near the elite level. And let's face it, if you miss out on Antonio Gates, most TE's are clumped in a pack...
ROUND 13, PICK 5
JASON ELAM, K, BRONCOS
We have to draft at least a starting lineup, and I've got another handcuff in mind at 14, so it's time to complete my roster with an elite kicker -- 'nuff said.
ROUND 14, PICK 8
CHRIS PERRY, RB, BENGALS
Just taking a shot on a kid who circumstances could put in the spotlight. Najeh Davenport went right before this pick, I would have considered him hard given Ahman's health last year, not to mention his douche-chill of a domestic off-season. I have no such suspicions about incumbent Rudi Johnson, just taking a shot...
And that's that. Reviewing other owner rosters after the smoke cleared, I was pleased to note that the RB runs prevented most from gaining a huge edge, but I'd be lying if I didn't admit I'm hoping Peyton tosses 60 TD's next year -- I'm might just need 'em! This should be interesting...